From The Guardian UK: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/02/climate-change-sandy-storm
Scientists predict stronger storms but say changing air patterns will prevent them from hitting US east coast
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
theguardian.com, Monday 2 September 2013
A recurrence of Superstorm Sandy – which barrelled head-on into the Atlantic coast, swamping New York City and large parts of New Jersey – is less likely under climate change, new research suggests.
Scientists expect stronger hurricanes under climate change, and possibly even more frequent storms – especially those at category 3 and higher. But New York City and much of the seaboard will be at lower risk of taking a direct hit, the study published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences said.
Instead, climate change will make it even less likely future storms will follow Sandy’s devastating track. The killer storm made a sharp left turn to slam straight into the Atlantic coast. The odds of a storm like Sandy were already extremely remote – a once in 700 year event – when it hit in October 2012. But it was that trajectory that made Sandy so devastating.
“What made Sandy so different was that it was steered into the coast rather than away from it,” said Elizabeth Barnes, a climate scientist at Colorado State University and an author of the study.
The researchers used climate models, based on a tripling of greenhouse gas emissions by 2100, to study whether future atmospheric conditions be more or less likely to blow a storm like Sandy westwards into the Atlantic coast.
They found future air patterns under climate change make a repeat of such a rare event even less likely. Wind and atmospheric conditions, including changes in the jet stream, would be more likely to push major storms further offshore, away from the big population centres along the Atlantic coast, the researchers found.
But, the researchers warned, the findings do not mean Americans can afford to be blasé about the risks to coastal areas from hurricanes and tropical storms. “You can’t let your guard down,” said Barnes.
Continue reading at: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/02/climate-change-sandy-storm
